Thursday, August 6, 2015

5

I will also tell you that I inevitably want to buy the stock, when I see one of these steady one year declines. It's just an emotional reaction I have to those charts. It's not that I actually know that a stock with that kind of one year chart is a good buy. I don't. I do suspect those stocks are going to go up, and go up quite rapidly, all the way to their one year highs, and perhaps beyond ... but I really don't know that. I really don't actually know what they are going to do.

That's the thing. The chart shows me a pattern that gives me a strong "feeling", but it doesn't show me anything that would confirm that feeling. It shows me a pattern I like, but it doesn't show me "what happened next".

One thing I could do, and it's something I'm working on, is to create a system that lets me watch a selection of stocks that made, in their one year charts, at a certain time, a pattern of the sort just described. I would want to preserve an image of the chart as it was when I had a feeling about it, and place, on the same page, a chart that updates as time goes by. Then, after time has passed, I could review those charts and see how the stock did. If I did that for a while, for a good number of patterns, I guess I would get a sense of whether the charts I had a feeling about actually were poised for good moves, or whether my feeling about that kind of chart was not, in fact, ... whether it was just a fantasy.

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